Homestead Ski Resort / Hot Springs

Hot Springs, VA

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY

Currently

Temperature 39.25°F
Feels Like 31.66°F
Humidity 56%
Pressure 1015mb
Wind 12.66mph from the W
Overcast clouds 39°F Overcast clouds
Overnight Mostly Clear
Low: 55°F
Friday Sunny
High: 55°F Low: 44°F
Saturday Partly Sunny
High: 64°F Low: 53°F
Sunday Slight Chance Rain Showers
High: 65°F Low: 52°F
Monday Rain Showers Likely
High: 66°F Low: 54°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... High pressure continues to build in from the Gulf Coast states tonight and Friday with gusty northwest winds. A backdoor front edges south toward the area Easter Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 850 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1. Wind Advisory Issued

A Wind Advisory has been issued for part of southeast West Virginia and southwest Virginia from late tonight through Friday.

Guidance continues to show a low level northwest jet with 850 mb wind speeds increasing into the 45 to 55 knot range Friday morning. The strongest surface winds are expected once mixing begins on Friday (around 10AM) into the mid afternoon and at the highest elevations.

Made slight adjustments to temperature forecast overnight. Wind speeds will lower slightly for the rest of the evening so the best cooling will be before the mid and high clouds arriver with the short wave approaching from the Ohio Valley. Isolated showers are possible in southeast West Virginia as early as 06Z/2AM.

Previous Discussion As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...

As the coastal low and associated precip propagates NEWD off the mid- Atlantic, dry ridging is pushing into the area on it's heels. So far the western majority of the area has mostly scattered out of lower cloud coverage given the subsidence and the Piedmont should soon follow suit in the next several hours leaving just some cirrus skirting across and some NW enhanced gradient winds kicking in.

A weak upper disturbance looks to traverse near the northern part of the CWA late tonight into Friday morning. This feature along with some upslope flow should allow for increased cloud coverage in parts of the west and north along with a slight to low end chance of some showers in the far north. Cooling low level thermal profiles may even allow for light snow transitioning in the far north as well but not expecting accumulations/impacts.

Otherwise Friday should be a mostly sunny with temps moderating warmer...even upper 60s across the Piedmont...though the NW winds should get stronger magnitudes. While most of the area looks to largely stay a bit lower than wind advisory criteria, there are a few locations in the mountains where there is a decent chance of reaching gust criteria of greater than 45 mph based on the probability of exceedance for the HREF grand ensemble. Will hold off on issuance for now but it warrants keeping an eye on in future updates.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1: Breezy weekend

2: Rain sinks south into the area Sunday

This weekend we will be situated between a large dome of surface high pressure and a developing weak front to our north. Throughout the day Saturday the center of the high will slowly slide south and offshore. This will allow the front to sag south into our area by Saturday night. Showers will develop along the front, reaching as far south as the VA/NC state line. Unlikely that anyone in the foothills of NC or the Piedmont will receive rain this week. It will be overcast though. The heaviest rain will remain centered around the I-64 corridor. There is potential for an isolated thunderstorm in that area as well, but for now a clap of thunder would be the exception rather than the rule.

Despite the cloudy/rainy conditions, it will be quite warm this weekend. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1: Unsettled and potentially convective weather

A strong, well developed system will track east out of the plains and bring an extended period of showers and potentially thunderstorms to our area next week. With a deep trough overhead, there is support for convection development pretty much throughout every level of the atmosphere Tuesday through Thursday. The timing of this trough is still up for consideration, hence the wide goalposts of Tuesday through Thursday. When it comes through, it looks to be one of the strongest frontal systems we've seen this spring. This could be the first set up for widespread thunderstorms yet this Spring, but that's speaking only in terms of potential.

Homestead Resort